15 teams for 8 Spots. Here is the outlook for each team.
George Washington: The Colonials have wins over Virginia and Seton Hall, two of the best bubble wins around. Unfortunately, they stumbled in Atlantic 10 play and now sit at 68th in the RPI. That number is likely going to be the main reason for the Colonials missing the tournament. That umber is driven by two horrific sub-200 losses to DePaul and Saint Louis. Given that the other metrics aren't in GW's favor either, it would be a major shock to see them dancing. In or out? Out.
St. Bonaventure: Mark Schmidt's squad sits right on the cutline at the moment. They have a win at Dayton as well as a season sweep of St. Joe's. Also, the Bonnies have other top 100 wins over Davidson, George Washington, Buffalo and Ohio. The bad? Losses at La Salle, Duquesne and Siena. They've also lost to other bubble teams Hofstra and Syracuse, which might hurt. They are 30th in RPI and played well coming down the stretch, and the Bonnies pass the eye test. It will ultimately come down to how the committee views the A10 as a whole. If Dayton pops up as an 8/9 seed early on, SBU could be in trouble. In or Out? In.
Hofstra: Somehow, people aren't discussing Hofstra the same way they talk about Monmouth/Valparaiso. The RPI is good enough at 54, with two top 50 wins over St. Bonaventure and UNC Wilmington. 6-4 against the top 100 is good enough to get a bid. However, there are five sub 100 losses. The committee usually has one or two surprises in store, and I think that the surprise this year will either be Hofstra or Valparaiso. In or Out? Out
South Carolina: Like I said, the committee usually has a surprise ready, and South Carolina might be on the wrong side of this one. The non-conference strength of schedule is brutal, which has a precedent for keeping teams out of the tournament (SMU 2014). There's a win at Texas A&M, but then the next best RPI win is Hofstra. They also lost to Missouri, Mississippi State and Tennessee, all terrible losses. Frank Martin has done an excellent job rebuilding this program, but the committee will see through a gaudy record, and the numbers don't favor the Gamecocks. In or Out? Out.
Vanderbilt: God, the Commodores are frustrating. With at least two future NBA Draft picks, many expected Vandy to be a consistent Top 25 team. By their inclusion in this article, you can tell that didn't happen. Their profile is a mixed bag of results. They beat the two best teams in their conference in Texas A&M and Kentucky, but also lost to three sub 100 teams, including a recent loss to Tennessee in the SEC Tournament. They challenged themselves in the non-conference, but didn't win anything substantial, as their best non-conference win was against Stony Brook. All signs point to Vanderbilt being out, except for KenPom. Assuming Wichita is in and Vanderbilt is not, Vandy would be the highest ranked team ever to miss out at 26. It will be very interesting to see what the committee does in this case. In or Out? Out
Michigan: There are no bad losses on Michigan's resume, which makes them sound like they should be a lock. Then you look at their wins and see that they only have four top 100 wins, with two of those wins coming at home. The RPI isn't great at 57, which is a direct result of no wins over teams ranked 51-100. But they did at least win some games, including a huge win over Indiana this week. Other metrics put them right at the cutline. I would put it at a 50/50 shot for the Wolverines right now. In or Out? In.
San Diego State: Known for a stifling defense coupled with an inept offense, SDSU is an enigma. The win over California is great, but then they had to go and play a neutral court game OUTSIDE against San Diego and lose (Side note: whoever scheduled an outside game for an awful offensive team against a crappy rival deserves to be fired). Only three top 100 wins to go along with losses to Grand Canyon, Boise State, and that San Diego team? Eh. The RPI is somehow 40, so there's a chance. In or Out? Out.
Monmouth: Too bad bench celebrations don't help your RPI. In all seriousness, Monmouth has been one of the most fun teams to watch because of a high-octane offense and the aforementioned bench mob. Monmouth beat USC, Notre Dame, UCLA and Georgetown, all away from home. Unfortunately, UCLA and Georgetown sucked for the rest of the year while Notre Dame and USC dipped a little. Monmouth would probably be a 7/8 seed if they didn't have three sub-200 losses to Army, Canisius, and Manhattan. RPI isn't too bad at 53rd and they've got a ton of road wins. Monmouth is probably heading to Dayton for the first four, but they're in a lot better shape than other teams. In or Out? In.
Pittsburgh: I'm convinced Jamie Dixon enjoys having a crappy non-conference Strength of Schedule. Every year, Pitt gets screwed with either selection or seeding because they rarely leave Pennsylvania to play before January. The game against Gonzaga was cancelled at halftime, so Pitt's best non-conference win is against Davidson. Fortunately, they beat Duke and Notre Dame and piled on some other top 100 wins in conference. Worst loss is to Clemson, which is not that terrible. They would have been in serious trouble if they lost to Syracuse in the ACC Tournament, but they pulled that game out. Should be safe. In or Out? In.
Syracuse: I don't understand why the RPI is so low at 71. The Orange beat Notre Dame, Duke, Texas A&M, St. Bonaventure and Connecticut for five top 50 wins. But man, the Orange lost a lot of games. 13 to be exact, the worst of which was a loss to St. John's, ranked 246th in RPI. The committee has said they would take into account Jim Boeheim's absence from the team (which makes no sense considering the NCAA is the one that gave the penalty. I think the Orange are in trouble because of the quantity of losses and their play down the stretch. In or Out? Out.
Temple: Temple played a tough non-conference schedule and won nothing. Seriously, their best non conference win was against Fairleigh Dickinson, ranked 204th in RPI. Luckily, the Owls piled on wins over the good teams in the AAC. Regular season sweeps of UCONN and CIncinnati? Check. Wins over SMU and Tulsa? Check. RPI is questionable at 59 because of losses to East Carolina and Memphis. However, they did win the AAC regular season. They should root hard for UCONN today, because Temple might be the team to get screwed out of a bid if Memphis steals one. In or Out? In..
Valparaiso: If you're a 5 or 6 seed, you better be praying the committee leaves Valpo out. Top 50 RPI with four top 100 wins including a very impressive road wins against Oregon State. Advanced metrics love the Crusaders because of a strong defense. They challenged themselves in the non-conference, and the worst loss to Ball State is still better than a lot of bubble teams. I think Valparaiso is the surprise this year. The Crusaders are better off from a numerical standpoint than people realize and they pass the eye test. In or Out? In
Saint Mary's: Randy Bennett has done an incredible job with a young team. What Bennett hasn't done an incredible job of? Scheduling. Best non-conference win? The Anteaters of UC Irvine. Two losses to Pepperdine hurt and St. Mary's blew a chance at California. They do pass the eye test and have a couple of top 100 wins thanks to Grand Canyon, BYU, and Gonzaga. Similar to Valpo, computers love the Gaels because of their statistical efficiency on one side of the ball, except for SMC it is on offense. Right around the cutline, but that NCSOS might screw them. In or Out? Out.
VCU: The Rams can remove all doubt by winning the A10 title today, but they should be good either way. They ran through A10 play with only a couple of slip ups, oddly against George Mason and Massachusetts. Because they beat of the top tier A10 teams, the RPI is good at 31 (Beating Davidson three time really helped). It would be a shock if they didn't get in, but weirder things have happened. In or Out? In.
Wichita State: Wichita is such an interesting case for three reasons.
1) Their best player Fred Van Vleet was injured for most of their losses
2) Transfer Connor Frankamp became eligible halfway through the season
3) KenPom inexplicably loves them
Yes, Wichita is ranked 12th in KenPom, despite an RPI of 48 and only one great win over Utah. Their defense is one of the best in the country by any metric you analyze. There are so many factors at play here, but if you fall back on the eye test and that KenPom ranking, it's tougher to leave Wichita out than to put them in. After all, their worst loss is to Illinois State, which isn't terrible. In or Out? In
1. Gonzaga will likely be undefeated heading into the NCAA Tournament-We've surely seen the Zags succeed in the regular season under Mark Few, but this is his most balanced and complete team yet. Few built this team off three high-level transfers, most notably Player of the Year candidate Nigel Williams-Goss, who leads the team in points (15.7), rebounds (5.8), assists (4.6) and steals (1.7). Gonzaga also returned a slew of notable returnees, including 7'1 center Przemek Karnowski and guard Josh Perkins. According to kenpom, the Zags rank in the top 5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Of course, there are still naysayers who knock Gonzaga down due to their weaker schedule in the WCC. However, Gonzaga proved its worth in the nonconference slate by beating Arizona, Florida and Iowa State all on neutral courts, and beat top-25 school St. Mary's twice. Regardless of regular season prowess, the bottom line is that Gonzaga needs to reach the Final Four in Phoenix, or else the doubters will declare the Zags as a pretender yet again.
4. Duke is putting the pieces back together- As the preseason #1, expectations were sky high for the Blue Devils. Injuries in the preseason caused some setbacks for the Blue Devils, as Jayson Tatum, Harry Giles, and Marques Bolden all missed significant time. Furthermore, Coach K missed a month of game play after back surgery. Recently, the Blue Devils seem to have turned the corner. Tatum's play is steadily improving and Grayson Allen has regained his confidence. The win over rival North Carolina should propel the Blue Devils to the top of the ACC, but there is still work to do. Duke needs to figure out point guard play and role allocation (Luke Kennard), but the arrow is pointing up.
