My Top 25
1. Villanova
2. Kansas
3. Virginia
4. Xavier
5. Oklahoma
6. Michigan State
7. North Carolina
8. Iowa
9. Arizona
10. Miami (FL)
11. Oregon
12. Louisville
13. West Virginia
14. Duke
15. Maryland
16. Baylor
17. Kentucky
18. Indiana
19. Iowa State
20. Utah
21. Purdue
22. Notre Dame
23. Texas A&M
24. Dayton
25. California
Next up: SMU, Texas Tech, Providence, Wichita State, Texas
BRACKET UPDATE
LAST FOUR BYES
Syracuse
Seton Hall
Michigan
Wisconsin
LAST FOUR IN
Cincinnati
Alabama
Saint Bonaventure
Butler
FIRST FOUR OUT
Tulsa
Vanderbilt
Gonzaga
George Washington
NEXT FOUR OUT
Oregon State
Washington
Clemson
LSU
Monday, February 22, 2016
Team Of The Week: Baylor
Baylor needed a big week to avoid slipping into a tough spot regarding seeding for the NCAA Tournament. Coming into last week, the Bears had dropped three of their last four and had a rough outlook considering five of their final six games would be against tournament-caliber opponents. Quite simply, the Bears were in danger of dropping out of the top 25 into the mess of teams just beneath.
The first key game Baylor had this past week was a home game against Iowa State. Baylor already defeated Iowa State in Ames earlier this year, but this one gave another opportunity for the Bears to notch a quality win. In this one, forward Jonathan Motley took over the game for Baylor, scoring a game-high 27 points on 10-17 shooting to go along with 10 rebounds. The game went into overtime, but Baylor pounded Iowa State down low without their toughest interior presence, Rico Gathers, who sat out of the match-up. Baylor matches up well with Iowa State because the Cyclones lack the big men to cover all the tough forwards that Baylor throws at their opponents. In the end, Baylor notched a 100-91 victory over Iowa State, sweeping the season series.
Next up came a road test against a rising Texas team under first year head coach Shaka Smart. Texas actually won the first meeting between these two teams in Waco, where Baylor received minimal bench production en route to a 67-59 loss. This time, the game script was flipped. Baylor took the
lead early, extended it and kept their foot on the pedal, eventually winning by 14. Jonathan Motley was terrific again, scoring 24 points on 12-13 shooting. At one point, Baylor's lead extended up to 27, which allowed the Bears to comfortably put Rico Gathers in to get him acclimated after missing the past couple of games. Taurean Prince also chipped in 17 points and guard Lester Medford had 13.
So what does this mean for Baylor now? Every couple of years, the Bears are able to take advantage of a relatively weak field and make a run to the Sweet 16/Elite 8. (Elite 8 in 2010, 2012, Sweet 16 in 2014). If the trend continues, look for Baylor to make a run to the second weekend. This team fits the mold of what Scott Drew tries to do. They have physical forwards in Motley, Gathers, Prince and Terry Maston. Lester Medford and Al Freeman can hang with any guards in the country. The issue will come if Baylor faces a team that can both compete from a physical standpoint and runs efficient offense (Virginia, Kansas, Xavier). While the Iowa State win may have just been a match-up fluke, the Texas win proves Baylor is on the rise.
The first key game Baylor had this past week was a home game against Iowa State. Baylor already defeated Iowa State in Ames earlier this year, but this one gave another opportunity for the Bears to notch a quality win. In this one, forward Jonathan Motley took over the game for Baylor, scoring a game-high 27 points on 10-17 shooting to go along with 10 rebounds. The game went into overtime, but Baylor pounded Iowa State down low without their toughest interior presence, Rico Gathers, who sat out of the match-up. Baylor matches up well with Iowa State because the Cyclones lack the big men to cover all the tough forwards that Baylor throws at their opponents. In the end, Baylor notched a 100-91 victory over Iowa State, sweeping the season series.Next up came a road test against a rising Texas team under first year head coach Shaka Smart. Texas actually won the first meeting between these two teams in Waco, where Baylor received minimal bench production en route to a 67-59 loss. This time, the game script was flipped. Baylor took the
lead early, extended it and kept their foot on the pedal, eventually winning by 14. Jonathan Motley was terrific again, scoring 24 points on 12-13 shooting. At one point, Baylor's lead extended up to 27, which allowed the Bears to comfortably put Rico Gathers in to get him acclimated after missing the past couple of games. Taurean Prince also chipped in 17 points and guard Lester Medford had 13.So what does this mean for Baylor now? Every couple of years, the Bears are able to take advantage of a relatively weak field and make a run to the Sweet 16/Elite 8. (Elite 8 in 2010, 2012, Sweet 16 in 2014). If the trend continues, look for Baylor to make a run to the second weekend. This team fits the mold of what Scott Drew tries to do. They have physical forwards in Motley, Gathers, Prince and Terry Maston. Lester Medford and Al Freeman can hang with any guards in the country. The issue will come if Baylor faces a team that can both compete from a physical standpoint and runs efficient offense (Virginia, Kansas, Xavier). While the Iowa State win may have just been a match-up fluke, the Texas win proves Baylor is on the rise.
Friday, February 19, 2016
Five Up: February 19th, 2016
After a hectic week of college basketball, it would have been much easier for me to write a "Five Down" column. However, there are a few teams and players that have seen their stock rise dramatically based on their play this week.
1. Texas Tech- Tubby Smith's Red Raiders are easily the team that improved their status the most in the past week. After starting off 3-7 in Big 12 play, Texas Tech has since won three straight over ranked opponents. Last week, they won a close overtime game over then #14 Iowa State, then went to #21 Baylor and crushed the Bears in Waco. These two wins coupled with a strong non conference Strength of Schedule had Texas Tech back in the NCAA Discussion, but most metrics had the Red Raiders still out of the field. However, Texas Tech then took the opportunity to move further into the at-large discussion with a monster win over Buddy Hield and #3 Oklahoma. I currently think that Texas Tech is solidly in the field after their last couple of victories, but most brackets have them among the "Last Four In". While the opinions on seeding may differ, Texas Tech's huge jump is noticeable. The issue for Tech is that three of their final five games (@OSU, TCU, KSU) would not count as good wins if Tech emerged victorious, but would be bad losses. Conversely, their other two games are at Kansas and at West Virginia. They aren't winning at Allen Fieldhouse, so their last remaining shot for a great win before the Big 12 Tournament will come March 2nd in Morgantown.
2. California-Widely regarded as one of the most naturally talented teams in the country, the Golden Bears struggled early on due to a lack of experience and cohesiveness. California couldn't seem to close out on the road, where all of their five Pac-12 losses came by less than ten points. Even with the road woes, Cal has rattled off four straight victories, including blowout home wins over Oregon and Oregon State, two teams in the NCAA Tournament picture. However, the road win at Washington last night might have been the most important. As their first road win in Pac-12 play in a tough environment, it will be interesting to see how far they can rise. They have three road games left, the toughest being a March 3rd date with Arizona. I don't think Cal will win in Tucson, but a victory would make them a trendy sleeper pick in the NCAA Tournament.
3. Brandon Ingram-Duke is a team I've outlined in recent posts, so I refrained from putting them on this list. Despite this impressive winning streak, the Blue Devils still have major flaws that I will highlight at another point, but their Freshmen star Brandon Ingram has been terrific recently. In his last three games, Ingram has averaged 21 points and nine rebounds, including two double-doubles against North Carolina and Louisville. As a scorer, Ingram has blossomed, scoring double digits in every game since a win over Utah State November 29th. With injuries to Senior leaders Amile Jefferson and now Matt Jones, Ingram and teammate Grayson Allen have had to mature quickly. Some analysts are talking about Ingram overtaking Ben Simmons as the number one prospect for the 2016 NBA Draft. I think that talk is far-fetched for right now (Simmons is a more unique talent), but at the very last Ingram has locked up the number two spot.
4. Saint Joseph's-Not too far removed from an NCAA Tournament appearance in 2014, the Hawks are closing in on a top 25 ranking and another at large berth. A win over #15 Dayton at Hagan Arena in Philadelphia moved the Hawks to an impressive 22-4 record. Additionally, none of their losses can be categorized as bad so far, with the worst coming against St. Bonaventure (who is among teams under consideration for the bracket). I'm high on the Hawks as a sleeper for the NCAA Tournament if they can keep this hot streak up. They have a star in DeAndre Bembry, a 9-0 record on the road, and a top 50 ranking in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Joe Lunardi currently has them as an 8 seed, which is about right at the time. If Saint Joe's can finish the season without another loss and put up a strong showing in the A-10 Tournament, it is entirely possible to see them get up to a 6 seed.
5. Alabama-Nobody expected the Crimson Tide to be this strong in Avery Johnson's first year as head coach. Alabama has won five straight games, including a win over Texas A&M in Tuscaloosa and two victories on the road at Florida and LSU. Retin Obasohan and Shannon Hale lead the Crimson Tide, who will need to avoid bad losses down the stretch to make the tournament. A looming road game at Kentucky would be a huge win, but one that obviously won't come easy. Besides that, they need to beat the cupcakes at home (MSST, AUB, ARK) and then close out the season with a win at Georgia and perform well in the SEC Tournament. Even if Bama misses out on the Big Dance this year, their early progression signs bode well for the future of the program.
1. Texas Tech- Tubby Smith's Red Raiders are easily the team that improved their status the most in the past week. After starting off 3-7 in Big 12 play, Texas Tech has since won three straight over ranked opponents. Last week, they won a close overtime game over then #14 Iowa State, then went to #21 Baylor and crushed the Bears in Waco. These two wins coupled with a strong non conference Strength of Schedule had Texas Tech back in the NCAA Discussion, but most metrics had the Red Raiders still out of the field. However, Texas Tech then took the opportunity to move further into the at-large discussion with a monster win over Buddy Hield and #3 Oklahoma. I currently think that Texas Tech is solidly in the field after their last couple of victories, but most brackets have them among the "Last Four In". While the opinions on seeding may differ, Texas Tech's huge jump is noticeable. The issue for Tech is that three of their final five games (@OSU, TCU, KSU) would not count as good wins if Tech emerged victorious, but would be bad losses. Conversely, their other two games are at Kansas and at West Virginia. They aren't winning at Allen Fieldhouse, so their last remaining shot for a great win before the Big 12 Tournament will come March 2nd in Morgantown.2. California-Widely regarded as one of the most naturally talented teams in the country, the Golden Bears struggled early on due to a lack of experience and cohesiveness. California couldn't seem to close out on the road, where all of their five Pac-12 losses came by less than ten points. Even with the road woes, Cal has rattled off four straight victories, including blowout home wins over Oregon and Oregon State, two teams in the NCAA Tournament picture. However, the road win at Washington last night might have been the most important. As their first road win in Pac-12 play in a tough environment, it will be interesting to see how far they can rise. They have three road games left, the toughest being a March 3rd date with Arizona. I don't think Cal will win in Tucson, but a victory would make them a trendy sleeper pick in the NCAA Tournament.
3. Brandon Ingram-Duke is a team I've outlined in recent posts, so I refrained from putting them on this list. Despite this impressive winning streak, the Blue Devils still have major flaws that I will highlight at another point, but their Freshmen star Brandon Ingram has been terrific recently. In his last three games, Ingram has averaged 21 points and nine rebounds, including two double-doubles against North Carolina and Louisville. As a scorer, Ingram has blossomed, scoring double digits in every game since a win over Utah State November 29th. With injuries to Senior leaders Amile Jefferson and now Matt Jones, Ingram and teammate Grayson Allen have had to mature quickly. Some analysts are talking about Ingram overtaking Ben Simmons as the number one prospect for the 2016 NBA Draft. I think that talk is far-fetched for right now (Simmons is a more unique talent), but at the very last Ingram has locked up the number two spot.4. Saint Joseph's-Not too far removed from an NCAA Tournament appearance in 2014, the Hawks are closing in on a top 25 ranking and another at large berth. A win over #15 Dayton at Hagan Arena in Philadelphia moved the Hawks to an impressive 22-4 record. Additionally, none of their losses can be categorized as bad so far, with the worst coming against St. Bonaventure (who is among teams under consideration for the bracket). I'm high on the Hawks as a sleeper for the NCAA Tournament if they can keep this hot streak up. They have a star in DeAndre Bembry, a 9-0 record on the road, and a top 50 ranking in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Joe Lunardi currently has them as an 8 seed, which is about right at the time. If Saint Joe's can finish the season without another loss and put up a strong showing in the A-10 Tournament, it is entirely possible to see them get up to a 6 seed.
Wednesday, February 17, 2016
What UNC-Duke Means to Me
Every college basketball fanatic knows the importance of UNC-Duke. My first fond college basketball memory was the 2005 NCAA Tournament, which culminated in a North Carolina championship in a poorly lit St. Louis stadium. As Sean May and Raymond Felton celebrated their title victory, I looked on in awe. Four years later, I watched Tyler Hansbrough and Wayne Ellington tear through the tournament field, securing North Carolina its second title under Roy Williams.
Later on, I watched Duke win two championships in Indianapolis. In 2010, Kyle Singler and the Plumlees ruined one of the all-time Cinderella stories, defeating Butler by 2 in the finals. Just last year, freshmen Jahlil Okafor and Tyus Jones knocked off Player of the Year Frank Kaminsky and Wisconsin in the championship game. However, in between those successes, we have seen Duke fail. First round losses to Mercer and Lehigh often get overlooked when discussing Duke's legacy in the 21st century. So does the Eric Maynor shot that led to a VCU upset over Duke in 2007 (my personal favorite Duke upset). Because of the presence of these failures, it is impossible to hate Duke as much as they were hated in the Christian Laettner era. But Duke is still one of the most envied programs in college basketball today.
I remain impartial when it comes to the rivalry. Usually, I root based on which players I like more, which usually rotates back and forth pretty evenly. I have fond memories of both teams winning, and can recall the bitterness and hatred of each team. Watching Gerald Henderson punch Tyler Hansbourgh in 2007 and hearing the Dean Dome erupt as Hansbrough charged to the locker room with his face covered in blood. Seeing Freshmen Austin Rivers hit a buzzer beater to win at the Dean Dome in 2012 and watching Duke spill onto the floor while fans stood in silence. Although the rivalry might have been more bitter back in the day when players stayed for all four years, Duke and North Carolina is still the most bitter rivalry in college hoops.
To me, Duke-UNC is so special because of what has happened around the landscape of college basketball. With conference realignment changing the framework of major conferences, this rivalry is one of the few to survive and still thrive. Additionally, it is comforting to know that in an industry dominated by the monetary gain of football, that there are two schools still driven by their passion for basketball. Even without having a team to root for, North Carolina vs. Duke will always be a microcosm of college basketball as a whole.
And that fact alone makes it the best rivalry in sports.
Later on, I watched Duke win two championships in Indianapolis. In 2010, Kyle Singler and the Plumlees ruined one of the all-time Cinderella stories, defeating Butler by 2 in the finals. Just last year, freshmen Jahlil Okafor and Tyus Jones knocked off Player of the Year Frank Kaminsky and Wisconsin in the championship game. However, in between those successes, we have seen Duke fail. First round losses to Mercer and Lehigh often get overlooked when discussing Duke's legacy in the 21st century. So does the Eric Maynor shot that led to a VCU upset over Duke in 2007 (my personal favorite Duke upset). Because of the presence of these failures, it is impossible to hate Duke as much as they were hated in the Christian Laettner era. But Duke is still one of the most envied programs in college basketball today.
I remain impartial when it comes to the rivalry. Usually, I root based on which players I like more, which usually rotates back and forth pretty evenly. I have fond memories of both teams winning, and can recall the bitterness and hatred of each team. Watching Gerald Henderson punch Tyler Hansbourgh in 2007 and hearing the Dean Dome erupt as Hansbrough charged to the locker room with his face covered in blood. Seeing Freshmen Austin Rivers hit a buzzer beater to win at the Dean Dome in 2012 and watching Duke spill onto the floor while fans stood in silence. Although the rivalry might have been more bitter back in the day when players stayed for all four years, Duke and North Carolina is still the most bitter rivalry in college hoops.
To me, Duke-UNC is so special because of what has happened around the landscape of college basketball. With conference realignment changing the framework of major conferences, this rivalry is one of the few to survive and still thrive. Additionally, it is comforting to know that in an industry dominated by the monetary gain of football, that there are two schools still driven by their passion for basketball. Even without having a team to root for, North Carolina vs. Duke will always be a microcosm of college basketball as a whole.
And that fact alone makes it the best rivalry in sports.
Tuesday, February 16, 2016
Top Ten Tuesday: Ten Best Mid-Majors
As March inches closer and closer, everyone will look to locate the "Cinderella" of the tournament. Today, I will give the ten mid-majors that can cause some havoc in the tournament this year. To be clear, I am defining mid-majors as every conference besides the ACC, AAC, A10, B10, B12, BE, MWC, P12, SEC.
10. Hawaii (20-3, 9-1 Big West) I outlined Hawaii's upward trajectory in a recent blog, but the Rainbow Warriors could be dangerous if they can get by UC Irvine and Long Beach State in the Big West tournament. Aaron Valdes and Roderick Bobbitt can hold their own with any backcourt defensively, and Stefan Jankovic fits the team well from a schematic standpoint. If Hawaii draws a team that struggles to guard the guard position, they can pull off a major upset.9. Yale (17-5, 8-0 Ivy) In a league that has recently been dominated by Harvard, Yale has emerged as the team to beat while the Crimson rebuild. Justin Sears has a shot to win the Ivy League POY, and Brandon Sherrod set a D1 record earlier this year for most consecutive field goals made. Like most Ivy teams, Yale is a disciplined squad that specializes in rebounding the basketball.
8. Chattanooga (23-4, 12-2 Southern) After head coach Will Wade left for VCU, many felt like Chattanooga would struggle this year. On the contrary, the Mocs have been tough to beat. The best win on their profile, a road victory at Dayton, ranks as one of the top wins of the season. Chattanooga will be at a disadvantage come March, however, due to a lack of experience with their current roster. The Mocs have been dinged up all year, which will play a role come tournament time.
7, Arkansas Little Rock (22-3, 12-2 Sun Belt) UALR is razor sharp defensively, ranking 17th in the country in Defensive Efficiency. What makes Little Rock so difficult to beat is how they slow down the game. They are 341st in Adjusted Tempo, which means that they force teams to play their style. Little Rock will struggle in the first round of the tournament if they play a team like Notre Dame or Duke that looks to get up and down the court quickly and score in bunches.
6. Stony Brook (22-4, 13-0 America East) The Seawolves are the hottest team in the country right now, rattling off 18 straight wins. Led by the duo of forward Jameel Warney and guard Carson Puriefoy, Stony Brook is solid both offensively and defensively.Their biggest test of the conference season comes Wednesday at Albany. If Stony Brook wins that game, they will win the conference outright.
5. Valparaiso (21-5, 11-2 Horizon) Valparaiso boasts a stifling defense that ranks 3rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. After nearly beating Maryland in the tournament last year, Valparaiso has the tournament experience to pull of an upset. First, they will need to win their conference tournament, as their at-large chances are slim after being swept by Wright State. If they do get in, look for Valpo to win against a team that struggles to score.
4. Saint Mary's (20-4, 11-3 WCC) Nobody expected the Gaels to be this good this soon. Most of their production comes from underclassmen, but Saint Mary's started the season hot and kept it going. Saint Mary's can score, ranking 22nd in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. With the quantity of wins, you would expect the Gaels to be a good bet to play in the Tournament. However, after being swept by Pepperdine, they sit squarely on the bubble.
3. Gonzaga (20-6, 12-2 WCC) Simply put, Gonzaga is having a down year. The departures of guard Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell Jr. hurt more than expected. As a result, Gonzaga currently sits around a nine seed. The Zags are led by forwards Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis, but if one of the two struggles, Gonzaga is doomed. They will likely make the tournament and be a trendy upset pick, but be cautious of advancing them far in your bracket.
2. Monmouth (22-5, 14-2 MAAC) Known well for the antics of their bench mob, these Hawks can also put on a show on the court. Led by Junior point guard Justin Robinson, who averages 20.3 points per game, Monmouth likes to run and gun, ranking 17th in adjusted tempo. As long as Monmouth avoids a bad loss to close out the season, or in the MAAC tournament, they should get an at-large berth thanks to an impressive non-conference slate.
1. Wichita State (19-7, 12-2 MVC) The Shockers are traditional mid-major powers. With the Senior duo of Ron Baker and Fred Van Vleet, expectations were high entering the season. However, Van Vleet suffered an early injury, and Wichita State struggled early. They then clawed their way back to the top 25 recently, but losses to Illinois State and Northern Iowa put them close to the bubble. Wichita should get into the tournament, and they will be a popular pick to advance given their recent success.
Monday, February 15, 2016
Top 25 and Bracket Update-February 15th
My top 25
1. Kansas
2. Villanova
3. Oklahoma
4. North Carolina
5. Iowa
6. Xavier
7. Miami (FL)
8. Maryland
9. Virginia
10. Michigan State
11. West Virginia
12. Purdue
13. Arizona
14. Dayton
15. Oregon
16. Iowa State
17. Kentucky
18. Notre Dame
19. Duke
20. Louisville
21. SMU
22. Indiana
23. Saint Joseph's
24. Texas
25. Baylor
Next up: Providence, Stony Brook, Monmouth, Utah, USC
Bracket Projection
LAST FOUR BYES
Seton Hall
St. Joe's
VCU
Florida State
LAST FOUR IN
Butler
Wisconsin
Cincinnati
Texas Tech
FIRST FOUR OUT
Oregon State
Washington
Alabama
Saint Bonaventure
NEXT FOUR OUT
Vanderbilt
Saint Mary's
George Washington
Clemson
1. Kansas
2. Villanova
3. Oklahoma
4. North Carolina
5. Iowa
6. Xavier
7. Miami (FL)
8. Maryland
9. Virginia
10. Michigan State
11. West Virginia
12. Purdue
13. Arizona
14. Dayton
15. Oregon
16. Iowa State
17. Kentucky
18. Notre Dame
19. Duke
20. Louisville
21. SMU
22. Indiana
23. Saint Joseph's
24. Texas
25. Baylor
Next up: Providence, Stony Brook, Monmouth, Utah, USC
Bracket Projection
LAST FOUR BYES
Seton Hall
St. Joe's
VCU
Florida State
LAST FOUR IN
Butler
Wisconsin
Cincinnati
Texas Tech
FIRST FOUR OUT
Oregon State
Washington
Alabama
Saint Bonaventure
NEXT FOUR OUT
Vanderbilt
Saint Mary's
George Washington
Clemson
Sunday, February 14, 2016
Team of the week: Duke
Heading into this week, Duke seemed to be in trouble. The Blue Devils lost four of their previous seven, including a three game skid featuring home losses against Syracuse and Notre Dame, and a loss at Clemson. Duke dropped out of the AP poll for the first time since 2007. With a daunting schedule ahead, the trend seemed to be that Duke was heading towards the 8/9 seed range. However, the Blue Devils turned it around this week, and changed the national perception towards their outlook. Against Louisville on Monday, Duke built a small lead early and sustained that lead for the majority of the game. Louisville led briefly in the second half, but Duke quickly took back their lead and built it back up, eventually winning by seven. Grayson Allen and Brandon Ingram combined for 37 of Duke's 72 points, and Duke held Louisville's senior duo of Damion Lee and Trey Lewis to just 21 points.
Duke's next match-up against Virginia seemed to be a more difficult test. Given Virginia's offensive resurgence this year, (the Cavaliers rank 12th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency) the Blue Devils defense would almost assuredly struggle to hold UVA down. Early on, it looked as if this would be the case, as Virginia took an early 25-14 lead. Duke fought hard to cut the lead to 34-31 at the half. From then on, the two teams went back and forth, trading buckets throughout the second half. With 9.9 seconds left, Virginia guard Malcolm Brogdon made a ridiculous reverse flip layup to put the Cavaliers up by one. Coach K called a timeout with six seconds left to draw up a play for the win. Grayson Allen then drove to the hoop and hit this insane shot to give Duke the victory. Was it a travel? Yes. Will they ever make that call in Cameron Indoor? No.
So what does this mean for Duke? Well, it solidifies them as a lock for the NCAA Tournament. This week is even more brutal than the last, with games at UNC and Louisville on the slate. I don't expect the Blue Devils to win either game. Conversely, I believe the win over Virginia says more about Virginia's road woes than Duke's status as a top 15 team. Virginia has already lost at Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech, in addition to bubble teams George Washington and Florida State. It will be interesting to see how Duke handles two tough road tests this week, and we will get a better sense of where the Blue Devils will be in March. Regardless, Duke responded to a tough week with two key victories, changing their trajectory for the season.
Friday, February 12, 2016
Five Up: February 12th
After another crazy week of college basketball, it is time to name our Five Up for the week. These are teams or players that put on strong performances in the past week, improving their stock. Let's jump into it.
Indiana: The Hoosiers remain one of the most enigmatic teams in college basketball, but they scored a huge win over Iowa on Thursday. Prior to the game, Indiana boasted an impressive 19-5 record, and trailed Iowa by one game in the Big 10. While impressive at first glance, Indiana's body of work actually had some major holes. Despite the quantity of wins, Indiana only contained two victories over teams currently in the projected field (Notre Dame, Michigan). Additionally, the Hoosiers just lost to Penn State on the road, and also had sub-100 losses to Wake Forest and UNLV. Their RPI was around 54, clearly lacking of substance. This win over Iowa gave the Hoosiers some cushion regarding their profile, and put them in a three-way tie for first place in the Big 10. The schedule for Indiana doesn't get easier, and they still struggle mightily on the road. But now the Hoosiers have some breathing room. Five players scored in double figures to lead IU to the win.
Temple: After struggling in the non-conference slate, Temple appeared as an afterthought to gain an at-large berth. I, among many others, ruled them out due to the lack of quality opportunities available in the AAC. However, after mounting a major second-half comeback to sweep Connecticut, Temple is right on the bubble. The Owls closed the game on a 21-4 run to stun Uconn, and already have wins over SMU, Tulsa, and a sweep of Cincinnati. Quenton DeCosey is playing like an all-conference guard, averaging 16.5 points and 6.1 rebounds. From here on out, the issue for Temple will be getting more quality wins. Villanova comes to town next Wednesday, and a win would put Temple solidly in the field. Unfortunately, the Owls still have to go on the road to Houston and Tulsa, two games that will be difficult to win.
Maurice Watson Jr.:The average college basketball fan might not know about the diminutive Creighton point guard, but Watson is putting Big East opponents on notice. In Tuesday's upset of Xavier in Omaha, Watson poured in 32 points, grabbed 7 rebounds, and dished out 5 assists. The point total was a career high for Watson, who sat out last year after transferring from Boston University. Watson has scored in double figures in every game since a January 12th loss at Providence, and he hasn't had a Big East game below 4 assists. Scintillating to watch due to his speed and handles, Watson is quickly rising to challenge Kris Dunn and Josh Hart for the Big East Player of the Year Award.
Duke: After dropping three straight games in January, Duke received plenty of criticism and dropped out of the AP poll for the first time since 2007. Now, the Blue Devils have won three straight including a victory over #13 Louisville, and seem to be back off their slump. Make no mistake, this Duke team still has major flaws, mainly on the defensive side where they rank 121st in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. But the notion that they would free-fall their way to the bubble can be put to rest. Upcoming tests against Virginia, Louisville, and North Carolina should determine where the Blue Devils should be seeded come tournament time. But barring a major collapse to end the season, Duke looks to be in good shape.
Hawaii: While you were asleep, Hawaii notched a huge victory over UC Irvine to take sole possession of the Big West Conference. The Rainbow Warriors now hold an impressive 19-3 record under head coach Eran Ganot, but this was their best win to date. Even though their profile lacks quality wins, Hawaii took both Oklahoma and Texas Tech down to the wire in non-conference play. Hawaii is great defensively, ranking 28th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and 54th in Turnover Percentage. Led on offense by forward Stevan Jankovic and guards Aaron Valdes and Roderick Bobbitt, Hawaii is good enough on offense to pull an upset or two if they can get in the NCAA Tournament. They also got this win without guard Isaac Fleming, who is still injured. Keep an eye out for the Rainbow Warriors as we look towards March.
Indiana: The Hoosiers remain one of the most enigmatic teams in college basketball, but they scored a huge win over Iowa on Thursday. Prior to the game, Indiana boasted an impressive 19-5 record, and trailed Iowa by one game in the Big 10. While impressive at first glance, Indiana's body of work actually had some major holes. Despite the quantity of wins, Indiana only contained two victories over teams currently in the projected field (Notre Dame, Michigan). Additionally, the Hoosiers just lost to Penn State on the road, and also had sub-100 losses to Wake Forest and UNLV. Their RPI was around 54, clearly lacking of substance. This win over Iowa gave the Hoosiers some cushion regarding their profile, and put them in a three-way tie for first place in the Big 10. The schedule for Indiana doesn't get easier, and they still struggle mightily on the road. But now the Hoosiers have some breathing room. Five players scored in double figures to lead IU to the win.
Temple: After struggling in the non-conference slate, Temple appeared as an afterthought to gain an at-large berth. I, among many others, ruled them out due to the lack of quality opportunities available in the AAC. However, after mounting a major second-half comeback to sweep Connecticut, Temple is right on the bubble. The Owls closed the game on a 21-4 run to stun Uconn, and already have wins over SMU, Tulsa, and a sweep of Cincinnati. Quenton DeCosey is playing like an all-conference guard, averaging 16.5 points and 6.1 rebounds. From here on out, the issue for Temple will be getting more quality wins. Villanova comes to town next Wednesday, and a win would put Temple solidly in the field. Unfortunately, the Owls still have to go on the road to Houston and Tulsa, two games that will be difficult to win.
Maurice Watson Jr.:The average college basketball fan might not know about the diminutive Creighton point guard, but Watson is putting Big East opponents on notice. In Tuesday's upset of Xavier in Omaha, Watson poured in 32 points, grabbed 7 rebounds, and dished out 5 assists. The point total was a career high for Watson, who sat out last year after transferring from Boston University. Watson has scored in double figures in every game since a January 12th loss at Providence, and he hasn't had a Big East game below 4 assists. Scintillating to watch due to his speed and handles, Watson is quickly rising to challenge Kris Dunn and Josh Hart for the Big East Player of the Year Award.
Duke: After dropping three straight games in January, Duke received plenty of criticism and dropped out of the AP poll for the first time since 2007. Now, the Blue Devils have won three straight including a victory over #13 Louisville, and seem to be back off their slump. Make no mistake, this Duke team still has major flaws, mainly on the defensive side where they rank 121st in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. But the notion that they would free-fall their way to the bubble can be put to rest. Upcoming tests against Virginia, Louisville, and North Carolina should determine where the Blue Devils should be seeded come tournament time. But barring a major collapse to end the season, Duke looks to be in good shape.
Hawaii: While you were asleep, Hawaii notched a huge victory over UC Irvine to take sole possession of the Big West Conference. The Rainbow Warriors now hold an impressive 19-3 record under head coach Eran Ganot, but this was their best win to date. Even though their profile lacks quality wins, Hawaii took both Oklahoma and Texas Tech down to the wire in non-conference play. Hawaii is great defensively, ranking 28th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and 54th in Turnover Percentage. Led on offense by forward Stevan Jankovic and guards Aaron Valdes and Roderick Bobbitt, Hawaii is good enough on offense to pull an upset or two if they can get in the NCAA Tournament. They also got this win without guard Isaac Fleming, who is still injured. Keep an eye out for the Rainbow Warriors as we look towards March.
Wednesday, February 10, 2016
Is Providence Trending Towards the Bubble?
For the majority of the season, Providence College was though of as one of the top contenders in the Big East. A strong non-conference showing propelled the Friars to a 14-1 start and a top 10 ranking. Led by perhaps the most dynamic duo in the country in Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil, the Friars were thought of as a lock to make the NCAA Tournament.
Now? The Friars have lost four of their last five games, including losses to DePaul and Marquette. Given their questionable status in the computers, it is time to question whether or not Providence should be on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament.
Kenpom: Ken Pomeroy's rankings were the first sign of trouble for the Friars. Even when Providence ranked within the top 10, their Kenpom rating was alarmingly low. Currently, the Friars sit at 52nd in Pomeroy's rankings, well behind the likes of bubble teams like Vanderbilt and Florida State. The issue here is the offense. While the Friars rank 23rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they rank 122nd in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Furthermore, Providence ranks 268th in Effective Field Goal Percentage and 290th in 3-Point Percentage. Simply put, the Friars aren't making their shots. KenPom projects them to finish the conference slate at 9-9, and 19-10 overall. Would that get them in? Probably. But that would give PC a slim margin of error in the Big East Tournament.
RPI: In the latest RPI rankings, Providence sits at 32nd. However, there aren't many more opportunities for good wins. Unless the Friars win at Xavier or at Seton Hall, they will only have two RPI top 50 wins. One of these wins is over Villanova, which will definitely look favorably upon PC come selection Sunday. A problem would arise if Providence were to lose to DePaul or St. John's. Both of these would be losses outside of the RPI top 100, which would give the Friars four on the season. I don't think the committee would be able to forgive four bad losses with only two impressive wins.
Eye Test: As the numbers suggest, Providence is an enigmatic team to evaluate. In their games against Michigan State, Arizona, and Villanova, the Friars looked like National Championship contenders. And then they were swept by Marquette and lost to freaking DePaul. If the Friars could get anything consistent behind Dunn and Bentil, there wouldn't be such a dilemma. Rodney Bullock flashed some promise in the beginning of the season, but has faded in recent Big East games. Ryan Fazekas is still adjusting as a Freshmen (The mono didn't help) and Kyron Cartwright still looks a year away. Jalen Lindsay and Junior Lomomba just don't have the skillset to fill the role. Unless one of these guys can step up, defenses will continue to key in on Dunn and force everyone else to beat them.
The bottom line for the Friars is that they need to take care of business to feel truly safe for Selection Sunday. If the Friars can beat Georgetown, Creighton, St. John's and DePaul, they will finish at 10-8 in conference and 20-9 overall and receive a bid. However, the downward trend establishes PC as a pretender until they prove otherwise.
Now? The Friars have lost four of their last five games, including losses to DePaul and Marquette. Given their questionable status in the computers, it is time to question whether or not Providence should be on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament.
Kenpom: Ken Pomeroy's rankings were the first sign of trouble for the Friars. Even when Providence ranked within the top 10, their Kenpom rating was alarmingly low. Currently, the Friars sit at 52nd in Pomeroy's rankings, well behind the likes of bubble teams like Vanderbilt and Florida State. The issue here is the offense. While the Friars rank 23rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they rank 122nd in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Furthermore, Providence ranks 268th in Effective Field Goal Percentage and 290th in 3-Point Percentage. Simply put, the Friars aren't making their shots. KenPom projects them to finish the conference slate at 9-9, and 19-10 overall. Would that get them in? Probably. But that would give PC a slim margin of error in the Big East Tournament.
RPI: In the latest RPI rankings, Providence sits at 32nd. However, there aren't many more opportunities for good wins. Unless the Friars win at Xavier or at Seton Hall, they will only have two RPI top 50 wins. One of these wins is over Villanova, which will definitely look favorably upon PC come selection Sunday. A problem would arise if Providence were to lose to DePaul or St. John's. Both of these would be losses outside of the RPI top 100, which would give the Friars four on the season. I don't think the committee would be able to forgive four bad losses with only two impressive wins.
Eye Test: As the numbers suggest, Providence is an enigmatic team to evaluate. In their games against Michigan State, Arizona, and Villanova, the Friars looked like National Championship contenders. And then they were swept by Marquette and lost to freaking DePaul. If the Friars could get anything consistent behind Dunn and Bentil, there wouldn't be such a dilemma. Rodney Bullock flashed some promise in the beginning of the season, but has faded in recent Big East games. Ryan Fazekas is still adjusting as a Freshmen (The mono didn't help) and Kyron Cartwright still looks a year away. Jalen Lindsay and Junior Lomomba just don't have the skillset to fill the role. Unless one of these guys can step up, defenses will continue to key in on Dunn and force everyone else to beat them.
The bottom line for the Friars is that they need to take care of business to feel truly safe for Selection Sunday. If the Friars can beat Georgetown, Creighton, St. John's and DePaul, they will finish at 10-8 in conference and 20-9 overall and receive a bid. However, the downward trend establishes PC as a pretender until they prove otherwise.
Tuesday, February 9, 2016
Top Ten Tuesday:Best Conferences in the Country
With the insane parity in college basketball this season, conferences are either tumbling or rising. Today, I will rank my choices for the top ten conferences in college basketball.
10. Colonial Athletic Association-This might come as a bit of a surprise, as the CAA isn't known as a basketball powerhouse. However, the CAA currently sits ninth in the conference RPI, thanks to some key wins from some of the marquee programs. Northeastern's road win at Miami is as good as any non-conference victory in the country. Hofstra took down two schools sitting on the bubble in Florida State and St. Bonaventure's, while Charleston also won a home game against LSU. Five CAA teams currently rank in the top 100 of RPI, with William & Mary as the leader at 38. UNC Wilmington leads the conference at 10-2, but there are four other teams within two games of the Seahawks. This will ultimately be a one bid league, but the depth at the top coupled with strong numerical statistics make the CAA worth a spot on this list.
9. West Coast Conference- Anchored by three talented teams, the West Coast Conference looks like it will receive multiple bids again this year. With Gonzaga leading, and Saint Mary's and BYU not too far behind, the best case scenario would be three invited for the NCAA Tournament. The issue that makes this unrealistic is the strength of the rest of the league. Wins in the West Coast Conference are not easy to come by, but even a minor slip up results in a bad loss. Regardless, the WCC should get two teams into the dance that can make some damage.
8. American Athletic Conference- The AAC would be much higher on this list if teams played to their potential in the non-conference schedule. Instead, Connecticut sits around the 8/9 seed line and Cincinnati is squarely on the bubble. With SMU ineligible for the postseason, the AAC is likely looking at 2/3 bids, depending on Cincinnati's progression and a potential dark horse team winning the conference tournament. Unfortunately, the bottom of the league is extremely weak, and teams like Temple, Memphis, Tulsa and Houston are inconsistent at best.
7. Atlantic 10 Conference- At the moment, the difference between the A10 and AAC is the bubble. While the AAC only has two realistic bubble teams in Temple and Cincinnati, the A10 has three in Saint Joe's, Saint Bonaventure's and George Washington. VCU is similar to Connecticut in terms of current seeding, while Dayton and SMU have similar profiles as well. The Atlantic 10 has outperformed expectations so far, and it will be interesting to see which teams end up receiving a bid.
6. Southeastern Conference- Simply put, the SEC would be higher if there were a clear cut "best team". Texas A&M and Kentucky can't win on the road, and LSU is a bubble team because of an awful non-conference slate. Nobody knows just how strong South Carolina is because of such a weak non-conference schedule. Vanderbilt is on the bubble, but the Commodores have been one of the most disappointing teams so far this year. Florida is right around that 8/9 line, but the Gators have played poorly against strong competition. The SEC has talented teams that can make some noise in March, but it seems like nobody wants to take control of the league.
5. Big East Conference- The Big East is actually the opposite of the SEC. With exception to Xavier's home loss to Georgetown, the Musketeers and Villanova have asserted themselves as the two most dominant teams. Barring a collapse by both teams, the team that emerges victorious will likely receive a 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. Providence will also likely be in, and can do significant damage with the duo of Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil. Butler, Seton Hall, and Georgetown are all on the bubble. As long as Seton Hall avoids bad losses, the Pirates should be in. Butler needs to avoid bad losses and win a big game or two in order to solidify their spot. Georgetown likely needs to win against both Xavier and Villanova if they want to get in.
4. Big Ten Conference- Three Big Ten teams currently reside in the AP Top 10, and all three of these teams (Maryland, Iowa, Michigan State) look like good bets to make runs in March. Purdue also boasts a solid NCAA tournament resume, but question marks surround the rest of the conference. Indiana has the talent offensively, but the defense is a huge concern. Michigan remains one of the most inconsistent teams in college basketball. Wisconsin and Ohio State have proved that they can contend, but both need to get hot in order to receive at-large bids. The Big 10 would be higher on this list, but the bottom of the conference is weak, which drains the RPI and the opportunity for quality wins.
3. Pacific 12 Conference-Similar in nature to the SEC, the Pac-12 contains nine teams with realistic NCAA tournament aspirations, but no true dominant team. Oregon currently leads the conference, with USC and Arizona not too far behind. Utah and Colorado both look to have a good shot of making the tournament unless they free fall. From that point, Washington, UCLA, Oregon State, and California all reside on or near the bubble. As the season goes on, expect six or seven teams to distance themselves from the rest of the conference and cause a split similar to the Big 10 between the strong and the weak.
2. Atlantic Coastal Conference- Just like the Pac-12 is similar to the SEC, the ACC is similar to the Big 10. There is a clear divide between the good and the bad, however, the ACC contains stronger teams. Miami, Virginia, and North Carolina are all set for March runs. Duke and Notre Dame both look like safe bets to receive at-large bids. Pittsburgh just needs to avoid bad losses to get in, and there are three teams on the bubble in Syracuse, Clemson, and Florida State. Given the strength of their wins, I think Clemson ends up getting in while the other two are out. Keep in mind that Louisville is also ineligible for the postseason, which will affect how the ACC performs in the NCAA Tournament.
1. The Big 12 Conference-No debate here. The Big 12 has the best team in the country right now with Oklahoma. Kansas is right on their tail, and the Jayhawks should win the conference. West Virginia, Iowa State and Baylor are all playing like top 20 teams. Texas continues to exceed expectations in their first season under Shaka Smart. Kansas State and Texas Tech could both move their way into the field, given the endless opportunity for quality wins. The only true guaranteed road win in the conference is at TCU, given that Oklahoma State has already upended Kansas at home. It is critically important for the Big 12 to perform well in March, given that only West Virginia made the Sweet 16 last year.
10. Colonial Athletic Association-This might come as a bit of a surprise, as the CAA isn't known as a basketball powerhouse. However, the CAA currently sits ninth in the conference RPI, thanks to some key wins from some of the marquee programs. Northeastern's road win at Miami is as good as any non-conference victory in the country. Hofstra took down two schools sitting on the bubble in Florida State and St. Bonaventure's, while Charleston also won a home game against LSU. Five CAA teams currently rank in the top 100 of RPI, with William & Mary as the leader at 38. UNC Wilmington leads the conference at 10-2, but there are four other teams within two games of the Seahawks. This will ultimately be a one bid league, but the depth at the top coupled with strong numerical statistics make the CAA worth a spot on this list.
9. West Coast Conference- Anchored by three talented teams, the West Coast Conference looks like it will receive multiple bids again this year. With Gonzaga leading, and Saint Mary's and BYU not too far behind, the best case scenario would be three invited for the NCAA Tournament. The issue that makes this unrealistic is the strength of the rest of the league. Wins in the West Coast Conference are not easy to come by, but even a minor slip up results in a bad loss. Regardless, the WCC should get two teams into the dance that can make some damage.
8. American Athletic Conference- The AAC would be much higher on this list if teams played to their potential in the non-conference schedule. Instead, Connecticut sits around the 8/9 seed line and Cincinnati is squarely on the bubble. With SMU ineligible for the postseason, the AAC is likely looking at 2/3 bids, depending on Cincinnati's progression and a potential dark horse team winning the conference tournament. Unfortunately, the bottom of the league is extremely weak, and teams like Temple, Memphis, Tulsa and Houston are inconsistent at best.
7. Atlantic 10 Conference- At the moment, the difference between the A10 and AAC is the bubble. While the AAC only has two realistic bubble teams in Temple and Cincinnati, the A10 has three in Saint Joe's, Saint Bonaventure's and George Washington. VCU is similar to Connecticut in terms of current seeding, while Dayton and SMU have similar profiles as well. The Atlantic 10 has outperformed expectations so far, and it will be interesting to see which teams end up receiving a bid.
6. Southeastern Conference- Simply put, the SEC would be higher if there were a clear cut "best team". Texas A&M and Kentucky can't win on the road, and LSU is a bubble team because of an awful non-conference slate. Nobody knows just how strong South Carolina is because of such a weak non-conference schedule. Vanderbilt is on the bubble, but the Commodores have been one of the most disappointing teams so far this year. Florida is right around that 8/9 line, but the Gators have played poorly against strong competition. The SEC has talented teams that can make some noise in March, but it seems like nobody wants to take control of the league.
5. Big East Conference- The Big East is actually the opposite of the SEC. With exception to Xavier's home loss to Georgetown, the Musketeers and Villanova have asserted themselves as the two most dominant teams. Barring a collapse by both teams, the team that emerges victorious will likely receive a 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. Providence will also likely be in, and can do significant damage with the duo of Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil. Butler, Seton Hall, and Georgetown are all on the bubble. As long as Seton Hall avoids bad losses, the Pirates should be in. Butler needs to avoid bad losses and win a big game or two in order to solidify their spot. Georgetown likely needs to win against both Xavier and Villanova if they want to get in.
4. Big Ten Conference- Three Big Ten teams currently reside in the AP Top 10, and all three of these teams (Maryland, Iowa, Michigan State) look like good bets to make runs in March. Purdue also boasts a solid NCAA tournament resume, but question marks surround the rest of the conference. Indiana has the talent offensively, but the defense is a huge concern. Michigan remains one of the most inconsistent teams in college basketball. Wisconsin and Ohio State have proved that they can contend, but both need to get hot in order to receive at-large bids. The Big 10 would be higher on this list, but the bottom of the conference is weak, which drains the RPI and the opportunity for quality wins.
3. Pacific 12 Conference-Similar in nature to the SEC, the Pac-12 contains nine teams with realistic NCAA tournament aspirations, but no true dominant team. Oregon currently leads the conference, with USC and Arizona not too far behind. Utah and Colorado both look to have a good shot of making the tournament unless they free fall. From that point, Washington, UCLA, Oregon State, and California all reside on or near the bubble. As the season goes on, expect six or seven teams to distance themselves from the rest of the conference and cause a split similar to the Big 10 between the strong and the weak.
2. Atlantic Coastal Conference- Just like the Pac-12 is similar to the SEC, the ACC is similar to the Big 10. There is a clear divide between the good and the bad, however, the ACC contains stronger teams. Miami, Virginia, and North Carolina are all set for March runs. Duke and Notre Dame both look like safe bets to receive at-large bids. Pittsburgh just needs to avoid bad losses to get in, and there are three teams on the bubble in Syracuse, Clemson, and Florida State. Given the strength of their wins, I think Clemson ends up getting in while the other two are out. Keep in mind that Louisville is also ineligible for the postseason, which will affect how the ACC performs in the NCAA Tournament.
1. The Big 12 Conference-No debate here. The Big 12 has the best team in the country right now with Oklahoma. Kansas is right on their tail, and the Jayhawks should win the conference. West Virginia, Iowa State and Baylor are all playing like top 20 teams. Texas continues to exceed expectations in their first season under Shaka Smart. Kansas State and Texas Tech could both move their way into the field, given the endless opportunity for quality wins. The only true guaranteed road win in the conference is at TCU, given that Oklahoma State has already upended Kansas at home. It is critically important for the Big 12 to perform well in March, given that only West Virginia made the Sweet 16 last year.
Monday, February 8, 2016
February Outlook
With the conclusion of football tonight in San Francisco, college basketball season is officially in full swing. This year differs mightily from last season, where four or five teams reigned supreme while Kentucky chased perfection. Let's jump into the five major story lines thus far and address the current landscape of the game.
1. Parity dominates the game. North Carolina started out the season as the top ranked team, but the position seems to rotate every week. At the moment, Oklahoma looks like the strongest team, but the Sooners just suffered a loss at unranked Kansas State. Villanova will likely be number one in the newest polls, but Oklahoma crushed the Wildcats on a neutral court back in December. At the very least, it seems like there are 16 or so teams that have separated themselves in terms of quality wins. But all of these teams also have bad losses that make you question their validity in the upper echelon. For the NCAA tournament, the most likely scenario would be a combination of a couple of top ranked seeds and one or two surprises making a run to the final four. It should create havoc that will lead to quality upsets in the initial days of the NCAA tournament.
2. Upperclassmen lead the way. The best players in college basketball, with exception to Ben Simmons of LSU, are seniors and juniors. Led by Player of the Year front-runner Buddy Hield of Oklahoma, college basketball is being taken over by older players. This can be partially attributed to a mediocre crop of Freshmen, but the development of the upperclassmen cannot be understated. Players like Michigan State guard Denzel Valentine and Iowa forward Jarrod Uthoff transformed from role players to superstars. Conversely, teams that rely on inexperienced players to carry the load have had serious growing pains in conference play and on the road.
3. Mid major teams are struggling. In recent years, Wichita State and Gonzaga dominated their respective conferences and were regulars in the top 25. However, mid major teams have not been as as strong as years past. Wichita State just recently reentered the top 25 after stumbling early in the season, and Gonzaga is battling with Saint Mary's and BYU in the West Coast Conference. The Mountain West, which traditionally receivers two or three bids to the tournament, looks like a one bid league. Additionally, outside of Dayton, the Atlantic Ten has four teams hovering around the bubble. Monmouth, Valparaiso and Arkansas-Little Rock could do serious damage in the tournament, but that is contingent upon those three winning their conference tournaments. As a result of Mid-Major struggles, conferences like the Pac-12 and ACC may receive more bids that usual around the 8-9 seed range.
4. Two top contenders are ineligible for postseason play. Louisville and Southern Methodist will not play in their conference tournaments or the NCAA tournament due to postseason bans. For Louisville, the ban was self imposed because of an ongoing investigation regarding the solicitation of prostitutes for recruits. SMU faces the ban because of an academic situation regarding former player Keith Frazier. While both programs clearly have internal issues, to punish players with no involvement in either situation is unfair . Both teams had the ability to do damage in March, but will be sitting on the sidelines instead. This opens up two more spots in the tournament for bubble teams, however it is important to note that unless Connecticut or Cincinnati wins the AAC tournament, a bid would be stolen.
5. The Big 12 games on Monday night have become appointment television. At 9:00 every Monday, ESPN airs a game from the Big 12. Given the depth of the conference and the propensity of the offenses, these games are highly entertaining and extremely competitive every week. Highlighted by the triple overtime thriller between Kansas and Oklahoma, the number one and two teams at the time, Big 12 basketball on Monday nights has become a must-watch night. For those looking to get involved in watching college basketball, these games are an excellent starting point.
Personal Top 25
1. Oklahoma
2. Villanova
3. Maryland
4. Iowa
5. Xavier
6. Kansas
7. Virginia
8. Michigan State
9. North Carolina
10. Oregon
11. West Virginia
12. Miami (FL)
13. Louisville
14. Iowa State
15. SMU
16. Texas A&M
17. Arizona
18. Dayton
19. Purdue
20. Baylor
21. USC
22. Providence
23. Notre Dame
24. South Carolina
25. Kentucky
Next up: Wichita State, Duke, Seton Hall, Indiana, Valparaiso
National Player of the Year Rankings
1. Buddy Hield, Oklahoma
2. Jarrod Uthoff, Iowa
3. Denzel Valentine, Michigan State
4. Ben Simmons, LSU
5. Kris Dunn, Providence.
Bracket Projection
1. Parity dominates the game. North Carolina started out the season as the top ranked team, but the position seems to rotate every week. At the moment, Oklahoma looks like the strongest team, but the Sooners just suffered a loss at unranked Kansas State. Villanova will likely be number one in the newest polls, but Oklahoma crushed the Wildcats on a neutral court back in December. At the very least, it seems like there are 16 or so teams that have separated themselves in terms of quality wins. But all of these teams also have bad losses that make you question their validity in the upper echelon. For the NCAA tournament, the most likely scenario would be a combination of a couple of top ranked seeds and one or two surprises making a run to the final four. It should create havoc that will lead to quality upsets in the initial days of the NCAA tournament.
2. Upperclassmen lead the way. The best players in college basketball, with exception to Ben Simmons of LSU, are seniors and juniors. Led by Player of the Year front-runner Buddy Hield of Oklahoma, college basketball is being taken over by older players. This can be partially attributed to a mediocre crop of Freshmen, but the development of the upperclassmen cannot be understated. Players like Michigan State guard Denzel Valentine and Iowa forward Jarrod Uthoff transformed from role players to superstars. Conversely, teams that rely on inexperienced players to carry the load have had serious growing pains in conference play and on the road.
3. Mid major teams are struggling. In recent years, Wichita State and Gonzaga dominated their respective conferences and were regulars in the top 25. However, mid major teams have not been as as strong as years past. Wichita State just recently reentered the top 25 after stumbling early in the season, and Gonzaga is battling with Saint Mary's and BYU in the West Coast Conference. The Mountain West, which traditionally receivers two or three bids to the tournament, looks like a one bid league. Additionally, outside of Dayton, the Atlantic Ten has four teams hovering around the bubble. Monmouth, Valparaiso and Arkansas-Little Rock could do serious damage in the tournament, but that is contingent upon those three winning their conference tournaments. As a result of Mid-Major struggles, conferences like the Pac-12 and ACC may receive more bids that usual around the 8-9 seed range.
4. Two top contenders are ineligible for postseason play. Louisville and Southern Methodist will not play in their conference tournaments or the NCAA tournament due to postseason bans. For Louisville, the ban was self imposed because of an ongoing investigation regarding the solicitation of prostitutes for recruits. SMU faces the ban because of an academic situation regarding former player Keith Frazier. While both programs clearly have internal issues, to punish players with no involvement in either situation is unfair . Both teams had the ability to do damage in March, but will be sitting on the sidelines instead. This opens up two more spots in the tournament for bubble teams, however it is important to note that unless Connecticut or Cincinnati wins the AAC tournament, a bid would be stolen.
5. The Big 12 games on Monday night have become appointment television. At 9:00 every Monday, ESPN airs a game from the Big 12. Given the depth of the conference and the propensity of the offenses, these games are highly entertaining and extremely competitive every week. Highlighted by the triple overtime thriller between Kansas and Oklahoma, the number one and two teams at the time, Big 12 basketball on Monday nights has become a must-watch night. For those looking to get involved in watching college basketball, these games are an excellent starting point.
Personal Top 25
1. Oklahoma
2. Villanova
3. Maryland
4. Iowa
5. Xavier
6. Kansas
7. Virginia
8. Michigan State
9. North Carolina
10. Oregon
11. West Virginia
12. Miami (FL)
13. Louisville
14. Iowa State
15. SMU
16. Texas A&M
17. Arizona
18. Dayton
19. Purdue
20. Baylor
21. USC
22. Providence
23. Notre Dame
24. South Carolina
25. Kentucky
Next up: Wichita State, Duke, Seton Hall, Indiana, Valparaiso
National Player of the Year Rankings
1. Buddy Hield, Oklahoma
2. Jarrod Uthoff, Iowa
3. Denzel Valentine, Michigan State
4. Ben Simmons, LSU
5. Kris Dunn, Providence.
Bracket Projection
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