Sunday, February 14, 2016

Team of the week: Duke


Heading into this week, Duke seemed to be in trouble. The Blue Devils lost four of their previous seven, including a three game skid featuring home losses against Syracuse and Notre Dame, and a loss at Clemson. Duke dropped out of the AP poll for the first time since 2007. With a daunting schedule ahead, the trend seemed to be that Duke was heading towards the 8/9 seed range. However, the Blue Devils turned it around this week, and changed the national perception towards their outlook. Against Louisville on Monday, Duke built a small lead early and sustained that lead for the majority of the game. Louisville led briefly in the second half, but Duke quickly took back their lead and built it back up, eventually winning by seven. Grayson Allen and Brandon Ingram combined for 37 of Duke's 72 points, and Duke held Louisville's senior duo of Damion Lee and Trey Lewis to just 21 points.
Duke's next match-up against Virginia seemed to be a more difficult test. Given Virginia's offensive resurgence this year, (the Cavaliers rank 12th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency) the Blue Devils defense would almost assuredly struggle to hold UVA down. Early on, it looked as if this would be the case, as Virginia took an early 25-14 lead. Duke fought hard to cut the lead to 34-31 at the half. From then on, the two teams went back and forth, trading buckets throughout the second half. With 9.9 seconds left, Virginia guard Malcolm Brogdon made a ridiculous reverse flip layup to put the Cavaliers up by one. Coach K called a timeout with six seconds left to draw up a play for the win. Grayson Allen then drove to the hoop and hit this insane shot to give Duke the victory. Was it a travel? Yes. Will they ever make that call in Cameron Indoor? No.
So what does this mean for Duke? Well, it solidifies them as a lock for the NCAA Tournament. This week is even more brutal than the last, with games at UNC and Louisville on the slate. I don't expect the Blue Devils to win either game. Conversely, I believe the win over Virginia says more about Virginia's road woes than Duke's status as a top 15 team. Virginia has already lost at Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech, in addition to bubble teams George Washington and Florida State. It will be interesting to see how Duke handles two tough road tests this week, and we will get a better sense of where the Blue Devils will be in March. Regardless, Duke responded to a tough week with two key victories, changing their trajectory for the season.

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