February Outlook

With the conclusion of football tonight in San Francisco, college basketball season is officially in full swing. This year differs mightily from last season, where four or five teams reigned supreme while Kentucky chased perfection. Let's jump into the five major story lines thus far and address the current landscape of the game.
1. Parity dominates the game. North Carolina started out the season as the top ranked team, but the position seems to rotate every week. At the moment, Oklahoma looks like the strongest team, but the Sooners just suffered a loss at unranked Kansas State. Villanova will likely be number one in the newest polls, but Oklahoma crushed the Wildcats on a neutral court back in December. At the very least, it seems like there are 16 or so teams that have separated themselves in terms of quality wins. But all of these teams also have bad losses that make you question their validity in the upper echelon. For the NCAA tournament, the most likely scenario would be a combination of a couple of top ranked seeds and one or two surprises making a run to the final four. It should create havoc that will lead to quality upsets in the initial days of the NCAA tournament.
2. Upperclassmen lead the way. The best players in college basketball, with exception to Ben Simmons of LSU, are seniors and juniors. Led by Player of the Year front-runner Buddy Hield of Oklahoma, college basketball is being taken over by older players. This can be partially attributed to a mediocre crop of Freshmen, but the development of the upperclassmen cannot be understated. Players like Michigan State guard Denzel Valentine and Iowa forward Jarrod Uthoff transformed from role players to superstars. Conversely, teams that rely on inexperienced players to carry the load have had serious growing pains in conference play and on the road.
3. Mid major teams are struggling. In recent years, Wichita State and Gonzaga dominated their respective conferences and were regulars in the top 25. However, mid major teams have not been as as strong as years past. Wichita State just recently reentered the top 25 after stumbling early in the season, and Gonzaga is battling with Saint Mary's and BYU in the West Coast Conference. The Mountain West, which traditionally receivers two or three bids to the tournament, looks like a one bid league. Additionally, outside of Dayton, the Atlantic Ten has four teams hovering around the bubble. Monmouth, Valparaiso and Arkansas-Little Rock could do serious damage in the tournament, but that is contingent upon those three winning their conference tournaments. As a result of Mid-Major struggles, conferences like the Pac-12 and ACC may receive more bids that usual around the 8-9 seed range.
4. Two top contenders are ineligible for postseason play. Louisville and Southern Methodist will not play in their conference tournaments or the NCAA tournament due to postseason bans. For Louisville, the ban was self imposed because of an ongoing investigation regarding the solicitation of prostitutes for recruits. SMU faces the ban because of an academic situation regarding former player Keith Frazier. While both programs clearly have internal issues, to punish players with no involvement in either situation is unfair . Both teams had the ability to do damage in March, but will be sitting on the sidelines instead. This opens up two more spots in the tournament for bubble teams, however it is important to note that unless Connecticut or Cincinnati wins the AAC tournament, a bid would be stolen.
5. The Big 12 games on Monday night have become appointment television. At 9:00 every Monday, ESPN airs a game from the Big 12. Given the depth of the conference and the propensity of the offenses, these games are highly entertaining and extremely competitive every week. Highlighted by the triple overtime thriller between Kansas and Oklahoma, the number one and two teams at the time, Big 12 basketball on Monday nights has become a must-watch night. For those looking to get involved in watching college basketball, these games are an excellent starting point.
Personal Top 25
1. Oklahoma
2. Villanova
3. Maryland
4. Iowa
5. Xavier
6. Kansas
7. Virginia
8. Michigan State
9. North Carolina
10. Oregon
11. West Virginia
12. Miami (FL)
13. Louisville
14. Iowa State
15. SMU
16. Texas A&M
17. Arizona
18. Dayton
19. Purdue
20. Baylor
21. USC
22. Providence
23. Notre Dame
24. South Carolina
25. Kentucky
Next up: Wichita State, Duke, Seton Hall, Indiana, Valparaiso
National Player of the Year Rankings
1. Buddy Hield, Oklahoma
2. Jarrod Uthoff, Iowa
3. Denzel Valentine, Michigan State
4. Ben Simmons, LSU
5. Kris Dunn, Providence.
Bracket Projection