With the insane parity in college basketball this season, conferences are either tumbling or rising. Today, I will rank my choices for the top ten conferences in college basketball.
10. Colonial Athletic Association-This might come as a bit of a surprise, as the CAA isn't known as a basketball powerhouse. However, the CAA currently sits ninth in the conference RPI, thanks to some key wins from some of the marquee programs. Northeastern's road win at Miami is as good as any non-conference victory in the country. Hofstra took down two schools sitting on the bubble in Florida State and St. Bonaventure's, while Charleston also won a home game against LSU. Five CAA teams currently rank in the top 100 of RPI, with William & Mary as the leader at 38. UNC Wilmington leads the conference at 10-2, but there are four other teams within two games of the Seahawks. This will ultimately be a one bid league, but the depth at the top coupled with strong numerical statistics make the CAA worth a spot on this list.
9. West Coast Conference- Anchored by three talented teams, the West Coast Conference looks like it will receive multiple bids again this year. With Gonzaga leading, and Saint Mary's and BYU not too far behind, the best case scenario would be three invited for the NCAA Tournament. The issue that makes this unrealistic is the strength of the rest of the league. Wins in the West Coast Conference are not easy to come by, but even a minor slip up results in a bad loss. Regardless, the WCC should get two teams into the dance that can make some damage.
8. American Athletic Conference- The AAC would be much higher on this list if teams played to their potential in the non-conference schedule. Instead, Connecticut sits around the 8/9 seed line and Cincinnati is squarely on the bubble. With SMU ineligible for the postseason, the AAC is likely looking at 2/3 bids, depending on Cincinnati's progression and a potential dark horse team winning the conference tournament. Unfortunately, the bottom of the league is extremely weak, and teams like Temple, Memphis, Tulsa and Houston are inconsistent at best.
7. Atlantic 10 Conference- At the moment, the difference between the A10 and AAC is the bubble. While the AAC only has two realistic bubble teams in Temple and Cincinnati, the A10 has three in Saint Joe's, Saint Bonaventure's and George Washington. VCU is similar to Connecticut in terms of current seeding, while Dayton and SMU have similar profiles as well. The Atlantic 10 has outperformed expectations so far, and it will be interesting to see which teams end up receiving a bid.
6. Southeastern Conference- Simply put, the SEC would be higher if there were a clear cut "best team". Texas A&M and Kentucky can't win on the road, and LSU is a bubble team because of an awful non-conference slate. Nobody knows just how strong South Carolina is because of such a weak non-conference schedule. Vanderbilt is on the bubble, but the Commodores have been one of the most disappointing teams so far this year. Florida is right around that 8/9 line, but the Gators have played poorly against strong competition. The SEC has talented teams that can make some noise in March, but it seems like nobody wants to take control of the league.
5. Big East Conference- The Big East is actually the opposite of the SEC. With exception to Xavier's home loss to Georgetown, the Musketeers and Villanova have asserted themselves as the two most dominant teams. Barring a collapse by both teams, the team that emerges victorious will likely receive a 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. Providence will also likely be in, and can do significant damage with the duo of Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil. Butler, Seton Hall, and Georgetown are all on the bubble. As long as Seton Hall avoids bad losses, the Pirates should be in. Butler needs to avoid bad losses and win a big game or two in order to solidify their spot. Georgetown likely needs to win against both Xavier and Villanova if they want to get in.
4. Big Ten Conference- Three Big Ten teams currently reside in the AP Top 10, and all three of these teams (Maryland, Iowa, Michigan State) look like good bets to make runs in March. Purdue also boasts a solid NCAA tournament resume, but question marks surround the rest of the conference. Indiana has the talent offensively, but the defense is a huge concern. Michigan remains one of the most inconsistent teams in college basketball. Wisconsin and Ohio State have proved that they can contend, but both need to get hot in order to receive at-large bids. The Big 10 would be higher on this list, but the bottom of the conference is weak, which drains the RPI and the opportunity for quality wins.
3. Pacific 12 Conference-Similar in nature to the SEC, the Pac-12 contains nine teams with realistic NCAA tournament aspirations, but no true dominant team. Oregon currently leads the conference, with USC and Arizona not too far behind. Utah and Colorado both look to have a good shot of making the tournament unless they free fall. From that point, Washington, UCLA, Oregon State, and California all reside on or near the bubble. As the season goes on, expect six or seven teams to distance themselves from the rest of the conference and cause a split similar to the Big 10 between the strong and the weak.
2. Atlantic Coastal Conference- Just like the Pac-12 is similar to the SEC, the ACC is similar to the Big 10. There is a clear divide between the good and the bad, however, the ACC contains stronger teams. Miami, Virginia, and North Carolina are all set for March runs. Duke and Notre Dame both look like safe bets to receive at-large bids. Pittsburgh just needs to avoid bad losses to get in, and there are three teams on the bubble in Syracuse, Clemson, and Florida State. Given the strength of their wins, I think Clemson ends up getting in while the other two are out. Keep in mind that Louisville is also ineligible for the postseason, which will affect how the ACC performs in the NCAA Tournament.
1. The Big 12 Conference-No debate here. The Big 12 has the best team in the country right now with Oklahoma. Kansas is right on their tail, and the Jayhawks should win the conference. West Virginia, Iowa State and Baylor are all playing like top 20 teams. Texas continues to exceed expectations in their first season under Shaka Smart. Kansas State and Texas Tech could both move their way into the field, given the endless opportunity for quality wins. The only true guaranteed road win in the conference is at TCU, given that Oklahoma State has already upended Kansas at home. It is critically important for the Big 12 to perform well in March, given that only West Virginia made the Sweet 16 last year.
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