Is Providence Trending Towards the Bubble?

For the majority of the season, Providence College was though of as one of the top contenders in the Big East. A strong non-conference showing propelled the Friars to a 14-1 start and a top 10 ranking. Led by perhaps the most dynamic duo in the country in Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil, the Friars were thought of as a lock to make the NCAA Tournament.
Now? The Friars have lost four of their last five games, including losses to DePaul and Marquette. Given their questionable status in the computers, it is time to question whether or not Providence should be on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament.
Kenpom: Ken Pomeroy's rankings were the first sign of trouble for the Friars. Even when Providence ranked within the top 10, their Kenpom rating was alarmingly low. Currently, the Friars sit at 52nd in Pomeroy's rankings, well behind the likes of bubble teams like Vanderbilt and Florida State. The issue here is the offense. While the Friars rank 23rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they rank 122nd in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Furthermore, Providence ranks 268th in Effective Field Goal Percentage and 290th in 3-Point Percentage. Simply put, the Friars aren't making their shots. KenPom projects them to finish the conference slate at 9-9, and 19-10 overall. Would that get them in? Probably. But that would give PC a slim margin of error in the Big East Tournament.
RPI: In the latest RPI rankings, Providence sits at 32nd. However, there aren't many more opportunities for good wins. Unless the Friars win at Xavier or at Seton Hall, they will only have two RPI top 50 wins. One of these wins is over Villanova, which will definitely look favorably upon PC come selection Sunday. A problem would arise if Providence were to lose to DePaul or St. John's. Both of these would be losses outside of the RPI top 100, which would give the Friars four on the season. I don't think the committee would be able to forgive four bad losses with only two impressive wins.
Eye Test: As the numbers suggest, Providence is an enigmatic team to evaluate. In their games against Michigan State, Arizona, and Villanova, the Friars looked like National Championship contenders. And then they were swept by Marquette and lost to freaking DePaul. If the Friars could get anything consistent behind Dunn and Bentil, there wouldn't be such a dilemma. Rodney Bullock flashed some promise in the beginning of the season, but has faded in recent Big East games. Ryan Fazekas is still adjusting as a Freshmen (The mono didn't help) and Kyron Cartwright still looks a year away. Jalen Lindsay and Junior Lomomba just don't have the skillset to fill the role. Unless one of these guys can step up, defenses will continue to key in on Dunn and force everyone else to beat them.
The bottom line for the Friars is that they need to take care of business to feel truly safe for Selection Sunday. If the Friars can beat Georgetown, Creighton, St. John's and DePaul, they will finish at 10-8 in conference and 20-9 overall and receive a bid. However, the downward trend establishes PC as a pretender until they prove otherwise.